How the Miami Dolphins Can Make the Playoffs: Through Week 12

The Dolphins have an 83% chance to make the playoffs.

The Upshot’s 2022 N.F.L. playoff simulator. See all teamsRead the methodology, or

2022 N.F.L. Playoff Picture:
Each Team’s Path to the Postseason

Nov. 28, 2022 Updated
Div. Team Record Change in playoffs,
last 5 weeks
Make
playoffs
Win
division
Round 1
bye
Super
Bowl
AFC
East
Bills 8-3
96% 61% 30% 15%
AFC
East
Dolphins 8-3
83% 26% 7% 3%
AFC
East
Jets 7-4
58% 8% 1% 1%
AFC
East
Patriots 6-5
43% 5% 1% 1%
AFC
North
Ravens 7-4
89% 70% 3% 6%
AFC
North
Bengals 7-4
75% 28% 4% 4%
AFC
North
Browns 4-7
2% 1% <1% <1%
AFC
North
Steelers 4-7
1% 1% <1% <1%
AFC
South
Titans 7-4
96% 95% 1% 5%
AFC
South
Jaguars 4-7
5% 3% <1% <1%
AFC
South
Colts 4-7-1
2% 1% <1% <1%
AFC
South
Texans 1-9-1
<1% <1% <1% <1%
AFC
West
Chiefs 9-2
>99% >99% 54% 18%
AFC
West
Chargers 6-5
45% <1% <1% 1%
AFC
West
Raiders 4-7
4% <1% <1% <1%
AFC
West
Broncos 3-8
<1% <1% <1% <1%
NFC
East
Eagles 10-1
>99% 78% 70% 14%
NFC
East
Cowboys 8-3
>99% 21% 15% 9%
NFC
East
Commanders 7-5
67% <1% <1% 1%
NFC
East
Giants 7-4
64% 1% <1% 1%
NFC
North
Vikings 9-2
>99% >99% 13% 6%
NFC
North
Lions 4-7
7% <1% <1% <1%
NFC
North
Packers 4-8
5% <1% <1% <1%
NFC
North
Bears 3-9
<1% <1% <1% <1%
NFC
South
Bucs 5-6
78% 76% <1% 4%
NFC
South
Falcons 5-7
12% 9% <1% <1%
NFC
South
Panthers 4-8
8% 7% <1% <1%
NFC
South
Saints 4-8
8% 7% <1% <1%
NFC
West
49ers 7-4
96% 90% 2% 8%
NFC
West
Seahawks 6-5
53% 10% <1% 1%
NFC
West
Rams 3-8
2% <1% <1% <1%
NFC
West
Cardinals 4-8
1% <1% <1% <1%

The N.F.L. Playoff Picture, Team by Team

The Buffalo Bills (8-3) beat the Detroit Lions on Thursday, increasing their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 96 percent from 94 percent.

The Miami Dolphins (8-3) beat the Houston Texans on Sunday, raising their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 83 percent from 81 percent.

The New York Jets (7-4) beat the Chicago Bears on Sunday, increasing their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 58 percent from 54 percent.

The New England Patriots (6-5) lost to the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday, lowering their chances of making the playoffs to 43 percent from 60 percent.

The Baltimore Ravens (7-4) lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, dropping their chances of making the playoffs to 89 percent from 95 percent.

The Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) beat the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, increasing their chances of making the playoffs to 75 percent from 65 percent.

The Cleveland Browns (4-7) beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained 2 percent.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (4-7) beat the Indianapolis Colts on Monday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained 1 percent.

The Tennessee Titans (7-4) lost to the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, lowering their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 96 percent from 97 percent.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) beat the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, increasing their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 5 percent from 3 percent.

The Indianapolis Colts (4-7-1) lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday, dropping their chances of making the playoffs to 2 percent from 9 percent.

The Houston Texans (1-9-1) lost to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained less than 1 percent. They are on the cusp of being eliminated from playoff contention.

The Kansas City Chiefs (9-2) beat the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained greater than 99 percent.

The Los Angeles Chargers (6-5) beat the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, increasing their chances of making the playoffs to 45 percent from 39 percent.

The Las Vegas Raiders (4-7) beat the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained 4 percent.

The Denver Broncos (3-8) lost to the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained less than 1 percent. They are on the cusp of being eliminated from playoff contention.

The Philadelphia Eagles (10-1) beat the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained greater than 99 percent. A win next week would clinch a playoff berth.

The Dallas Cowboys (8-3) beat the New York Giants on Thursday, boosting their chances of making the playoffs slightly to greater than 99 percent from 98 percent.

The Washington Commanders (7-5) beat the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, increasing their chances of making the playoffs to 67 percent from 51 percent.

The New York Giants (7-4) lost to the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday, dropping their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 64 percent from 67 percent.

The Minnesota Vikings (9-2) beat the New England Patriots on Thursday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained greater than 99 percent. A win next week would clinch a playoff berth.

The Detroit Lions (4-7) lost to the Buffalo Bills on Thursday, dropping their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 7 percent from 10 percent.

The Green Bay Packers (4-8) lost to the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, lowering their chances of making the playoffs to 5 percent from 10 percent.

The Chicago Bears (3-9) lost to the New York Jets on Sunday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained less than 1 percent. They are on the cusp of being eliminated from playoff contention.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6) lost to the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, dropping their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 78 percent from 82 percent.

The Atlanta Falcons (5-7) lost to the Washington Commanders on Sunday, dropping their chances of making the playoffs to 12 percent from 18 percent.

The Carolina Panthers (4-8) beat the Denver Broncos on Sunday, raising their chances of making the playoffs to 8 percent from 3 percent.

The New Orleans Saints (4-8) lost to the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, reducing their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 8 percent from 10 percent.

The San Francisco 49ers (7-4) beat the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, raising their chances of making the playoffs to 96 percent from 90 percent.

The Seattle Seahawks (6-5) lost to the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, dropping their chances of making the playoffs to 53 percent from 63 percent.

The Los Angeles Rams (3-8) lost to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, lowering their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 2 percent from 4 percent.

The Arizona Cardinals (4-8) lost to the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, lowering their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 1 percent from 2 percent.

How the Miami Dolphins Can Make the 2022 N.F.L. PlayoffsThrough Week 12

83%
Chance to make the playoffs
Based on 276,000 simulations.
More simulations

Likeliest Playoff Positions

SCENARIO PROBABILITY
Bye week 7%
Host wild card 7%
Wild card 57%
Out 17%

End-of-Season Outcomes

RecordChance this happens Chance to make the playoffs

Division Standings

Highlighted teams would make the playoffs with the choices you’ve made so far.
Record in
Common Games
Team Overall Div. Dolphins Opp.
Nov. 28, 2022 Updated

The Miami Dolphins (8-3) beat the Houston Texans on Sunday, raising their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 83 percent from 81 percent.

The table below represents the Dolphins remaining games. Pick a winner and see what happens to the Dolphins playoff chances:

If the Dolphins win
If the Dolphins lose
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
The chance the Dolphins make the playoffs if this happens.
Reset

As you pick winners, the colors on some games will change, reflecting their relative importance for a Dolphins postseason berth.

Or explore other possibilities, like a first-round bye or a division title, right here:

The tables below represent every N.F.L. game remaining. Pick winners and explore which games matter most to the Dolphins chances.

Week 13
THU
8:15 ET
SUN
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
4:05 ET
4:05 ET
4:25 ET
4:25 ET
8:20 ET
MON
8:15 ET
Reset
Week 14
THU
8:15 ET
SUN
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
4:05 ET
4:25 ET
4:25 ET
8:20 ET
MON
8:15 ET
Reset
Week 15
THU
8:15 ET
SUN
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
4:05 ET
4:25 ET
4:25 ET
8:20 ET
MON
8:15 ET
Reset
Week 16
THU
8:15 ET
SAT
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
4:05 ET
4:25 ET
8:15 ET
SUN
1:00 ET
4:30 ET
8:20 ET
MON
8:15 ET
Reset
Week 17
THU
8:15 ET
SUN
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
4:05 ET
4:05 ET
4:25 ET
8:20 ET
MON
8:30 ET
Reset
Week 18
SUN
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
Reset
About the simulator

With 92 games remaining, there are about 5 octillion different ways the N.F.L. regular season could end. How many of those put the Dolphins in the playoffs? Far too many to check by hand.

So we built this simulator. Most calculators force you to choose the winners of each remaining game. Here, you can choose the outcomes of just a few games and see how your team’s chances grow or shrink. (For more information about this simulator, check out our newly updated guide.)

We estimate odds by randomly simulating the remainder of the season thousands of times and counting how often the Dolphins make the playoffs.

If you don’t specify an outcome for a particular game, we use Sagarin ratings to estimate each team’s chances of winning. (For simplicity, we assume each game has an equally small chance of ending in a tie.)