How the Las Vegas Raiders Can Make the Playoffs: Through Week 11

The Raiders have a 3% chance to make the playoffs.

The Upshot’s 2022 N.F.L. playoff simulator. See all teamsRead the methodology, or

2022 N.F.L. Playoff Picture:
Each Team’s Path to the Postseason

Nov. 24, 2022 Updated
Div. Team Record Change in playoffs,
last 5 weeks
Make
playoffs
Win
division
Round 1
bye
Super
Bowl
AFC
East
Bills 8-3
97% 66% 33% 16%
AFC
East
Dolphins 7-3
81% 22% 6% 3%
AFC
East
Jets 6-4
55% 7% 1% 1%
AFC
East
Patriots 6-5
50% 5% 1% 2%
AFC
North
Ravens 7-3
96% 84% 10% 7%
AFC
North
Bengals 6-4
65% 15% 2% 3%
AFC
North
Browns 3-7
1% <1% <1% <1%
AFC
North
Steelers 3-7
1% <1% <1% <1%
AFC
South
Titans 7-3
97% 96% 5% 6%
AFC
South
Colts 4-6-1
11% 2% <1% <1%
AFC
South
Jaguars 3-7
3% 1% <1% <1%
AFC
South
Texans 1-8-1
<1% <1% <1% <1%
AFC
West
Chiefs 8-2
>99% 99% 42% 16%
AFC
West
Chargers 5-5
39% 1% <1% 1%
AFC
West
Raiders 3-7
3% <1% <1% <1%
AFC
West
Broncos 3-7
1% <1% <1% <1%
NFC
East
Eagles 9-1
>99% 71% 60% 12%
NFC
East
Cowboys 8-3
99% 28% 19% 10%
NFC
East
Giants 7-4
61% 1% 1% 1%
NFC
East
Commanders 6-5
52% <1% <1% 1%
NFC
North
Vikings 9-2
>99% >99% 18% 7%
NFC
North
Packers 4-7
10% <1% <1% <1%
NFC
North
Lions 4-7
6% <1% <1% <1%
NFC
North
Bears 3-8
<1% <1% <1% <1%
NFC
South
Bucs 5-5
82% 80% <1% 5%
NFC
South
Falcons 5-6
17% 11% <1% <1%
NFC
South
Saints 4-7
10% 7% <1% <1%
NFC
South
Panthers 3-8
3% 3% <1% <1%
NFC
West
49ers 6-4
90% 78% 3% 7%
NFC
West
Seahawks 6-4
64% 21% <1% 1%
NFC
West
Rams 3-7
4% <1% <1% <1%
NFC
West
Cardinals 4-7
2% <1% <1% <1%

The N.F.L. Playoff Picture, Team by Team

The Buffalo Bills (8-3) beat the Detroit Lions on Thursday, increasing their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 97 percent from 94 percent.

The Miami Dolphins (7-3) had a bye last week, but their chances of making the playoffs dropped slightly to 81 percent from 82 percent.

The New York Jets (6-4) lost to the New England Patriots on Sunday, dropping their chances of making the playoffs to 55 percent from 65 percent.

The New England Patriots (6-5) lost to the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday, reducing their chances of making the playoffs to 50 percent from 60 percent.

The Baltimore Ravens (7-3) beat the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, increasing their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 96 percent from 92 percent.

The Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, raising their chances of making the playoffs to 65 percent from 50 percent.

The Cleveland Browns (3-7) lost to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, lowering their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 1 percent from 3 percent.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7) lost to the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, lowering their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 1 percent from 4 percent.

The Tennessee Titans (7-3) beat the Green Bay Packers in Week 11, increasing their chances of making the playoffs to 97 percent from 91 percent.

The Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1) lost to the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, lowering their chances of making the playoffs to 11 percent from 19 percent.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7) had a bye last week. Their chances of making the playoffs stayed at 3 percent.

The Houston Texans (1-8-1) lost to the Washington Commanders on Sunday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained less than 1 percent. They are on the cusp of being eliminated from playoff contention.

The Kansas City Chiefs (8-2) beat the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, raising their chances of making the playoffs slightly to greater than 99 percent from 97 percent.

The Los Angeles Chargers (5-5) lost to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, dropping their chances of making the playoffs to 39 percent from 51 percent.

The Las Vegas Raiders (3-7) beat the Denver Broncos on Sunday, raising their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 3 percent from 1 percent.

The Denver Broncos (3-7) lost to the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, lowering their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 1 percent from 3 percent.

The Philadelphia Eagles (9-1) beat the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained greater than 99 percent.

The Dallas Cowboys (8-3) beat the New York Giants on Thursday, raising their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 99 percent from 98 percent.

The New York Giants (7-4) lost to the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday, lowering their chances of making the playoffs to 61 percent from 67 percent.

The Washington Commanders (6-5) beat the Houston Texans on Sunday, raising their chances of making the playoffs to 52 percent from 38 percent.

The Minnesota Vikings (9-2) beat the New England Patriots on Thursday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained greater than 99 percent.

The Green Bay Packers (4-7) lost to the Tennessee Titans in Week 11, lowering their chances of making the playoffs to 10 percent from 20 percent.

The Detroit Lions (4-7) lost to the Buffalo Bills on Thursday, reducing their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 6 percent from 10 percent.

The Chicago Bears (3-8) lost to the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained less than 1 percent.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) had a bye last week, but their chances of making the playoffs decreased slightly to 82 percent from 83 percent.

The Atlanta Falcons (5-6) beat the Chicago Bears on Sunday, boosting their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 17 percent from 13 percent.

The New Orleans Saints (4-7) beat the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, raising their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 10 percent from 6 percent.

The Carolina Panthers (3-8) lost to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, lowering their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 3 percent from 5 percent.

The San Francisco 49ers (6-4) beat the Arizona Cardinals on Monday, increasing their chances of making the playoffs to 90 percent from 78 percent.

The Seattle Seahawks (6-4) had a bye last week. Their chances of making the playoffs stayed at 64 percent.

The Los Angeles Rams (3-7) lost to the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, reducing their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 4 percent from 8 percent.

The Arizona Cardinals (4-7) lost to the San Francisco 49ers on Monday, dropping their chances of making the playoffs to 2 percent from 10 percent.

How the Las Vegas Raiders Can Make the 2022 N.F.L. PlayoffsThrough Week 11

3%
Chance to make the playoffs
Based on 315,000 simulations.
More simulations

Likeliest Playoff Positions

SCENARIO PROBABILITY
Bye week <1%
Host wild card <1%
Wild card 3%
Out 97%

End-of-Season Outcomes

RecordChance this happens Chance to make the playoffs

Division Standings

Highlighted teams would make the playoffs with the choices you’ve made so far.
Record in
Common Games
Team Overall Div. Raiders Opp.
Nov. 24, 2022 Updated

The Las Vegas Raiders (3-7) beat the Denver Broncos on Sunday, raising their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 3 percent from 1 percent.

The table below represents the Raiders remaining games. Pick a winner and see what happens to the Raiders playoff chances:

If the Raiders win
If the Raiders lose
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
The chance the Raiders make the playoffs if this happens.
Reset

As you pick winners, the colors on some games will change, reflecting their relative importance for a Raiders postseason berth.

Or explore other possibilities, like a first-round bye or a division title, right here:

The tables below represent every N.F.L. game remaining. Pick winners and explore which games matter most to the Raiders chances.

Week 12
THU
12:30 ET
4:30 ET
8:20 ET
SUN
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
4:05 ET
4:05 ET
4:25 ET
4:25 ET
8:20 ET
MON
8:15 ET
Reset
Week 13
THU
8:15 ET
SUN
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
4:05 ET
4:05 ET
4:25 ET
4:25 ET
8:20 ET
MON
8:15 ET
Reset
Week 14
THU
8:15 ET
SUN
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
4:05 ET
4:25 ET
4:25 ET
8:20 ET
MON
8:15 ET
Reset
Week 15
THU
8:15 ET
SUN
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
4:05 ET
4:25 ET
4:25 ET
8:20 ET
MON
8:15 ET
Reset
Week 16
THU
8:15 ET
SAT
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
4:05 ET
4:25 ET
8:15 ET
SUN
1:00 ET
4:30 ET
8:20 ET
MON
8:15 ET
Reset
Week 17
THU
8:15 ET
SUN
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
4:05 ET
4:05 ET
4:25 ET
8:20 ET
MON
8:30 ET
Reset
Week 18
SUN
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
Reset
About the simulator

With 105 games remaining, there are about 41 nonillion different ways the N.F.L. regular season could end. How many of those put the Raiders in the playoffs? Far too many to check by hand.

So we built this simulator. Most calculators force you to choose the winners of each remaining game. Here, you can choose the outcomes of just a few games and see how your team’s chances grow or shrink. (For more information about this simulator, check out our newly updated guide.)

We estimate odds by randomly simulating the remainder of the season thousands of times and counting how often the Raiders make the playoffs.

If you don’t specify an outcome for a particular game, we use Sagarin ratings to estimate each team’s chances of winning. (For simplicity, we assume each game has an equally small chance of ending in a tie.)