How the Atlanta Falcons Can Make the Playoffs: Through Week 13

The Falcons now have only a 6% chance to make the playoffs.

The Upshot’s 2022 N.F.L. playoff simulator. See all teamsRead the methodology, or

2022 N.F.L. Playoff Picture:
Each Team’s Path to the Postseason

Dec. 4, 2022 Updated
Div. Team Record Change in playoffs,
last 5 weeks
Make
playoffs
Win
division
Round 1
bye
Super
Bowl
AFC
East
Bills 9-3
99% 72% 37% 16%
AFC
East
Dolphins 8-3
85% 22% 7% 3%
AFC
East
Jets 7-5
54% 5% <1% 1%
AFC
East
Patriots 6-6
30% 1% <1% 1%
AFC
North
Ravens 8-4
93% 72% 3% 6%
AFC
North
Bengals 7-4
78% 26% 5% 5%
AFC
North
Browns 5-7
3% 1% <1% <1%
AFC
North
Steelers 5-7
3% 1% <1% <1%
AFC
South
Titans 7-5
96% 95% <1% 4%
AFC
South
Jaguars 4-8
3% 3% <1% <1%
AFC
South
Colts 4-7-1
3% 2% <1% <1%
AFC
South
Texans ✗ 1-10-1
0% 0% 0% 0%
AFC
West
Chiefs 9-2
>99% >99% 48% 18%
AFC
West
Chargers 6-5
48% <1% <1% 1%
AFC
West
Raiders 4-7
5% <1% <1% <1%
AFC
West
Broncos 3-9
<1% <1% <1% <1%
NFC
East
Eagles ✓ 11-1
100% 87% 79% 16%
NFC
East
Cowboys 8-3
99% 13% 8% 8%
NFC
East
Commanders 7-5-1
74% <1% <1% 1%
NFC
East
Giants 7-4-1
73% <1% <1% 1%
NFC
North
Vikings 10-2
>99% >99% 12% 7%
NFC
North
Lions 5-7
6% <1% <1% <1%
NFC
North
Packers 5-8
5% <1% <1% <1%
NFC
North
Bears ✗ 3-10
0% 0% 0% 0%
NFC
South
Bucs 5-6
76% 76% <1% 3%
NFC
South
Panthers 4-8
11% 11% <1% <1%
NFC
South
Saints 4-8
8% 7% <1% <1%
NFC
South
Falcons 5-8
6% 6% <1% <1%
NFC
West
49ers 7-4
95% 91% 1% 8%
NFC
West
Seahawks 6-5
44% 9% <1% 1%
NFC
West
Rams 3-8
1% <1% <1% <1%
NFC
West
Cardinals 4-8
1% <1% <1% <1%

The N.F.L. Playoff Picture, Team by Team

The Buffalo Bills (9-3) beat the New England Patriots on Thursday, raising their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 99 percent from 95 percent.

The Miami Dolphins (8-3) beat the Houston Texans in Week 12, increasing their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 85 percent from 81 percent.

The New York Jets (7-5) lost to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, dropping their chances of making the playoffs to 54 percent from 62 percent.

The New England Patriots (6-6) lost to the Buffalo Bills on Thursday, reducing their chances of making the playoffs to 30 percent from 41 percent.

The Baltimore Ravens (8-4) beat the Denver Broncos on Sunday, increasing their chances of making the playoffs to 93 percent from 87 percent.

The Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) beat the Tennessee Titans in Week 12, increasing their chances of making the playoffs to 78 percent from 65 percent.

The Cleveland Browns (5-7) beat the Houston Texans on Sunday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained 3 percent.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7) beat the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, raising their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 3 percent from 2 percent.

The Tennessee Titans (7-5) lost to the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained 96 percent.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) lost to the Detroit Lions on Sunday, dropping their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 3 percent from 6 percent.

The Indianapolis Colts (4-7-1) lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday, dropping their chances of making the playoffs to 3 percent from 9 percent.

The Texans have been eliminated from playoff contention.

The Kansas City Chiefs (9-2) beat the Los Angeles Rams in Week 12, but their chances of making the playoffs remained greater than 99 percent. A win next week would clinch a playoff berth.

The Los Angeles Chargers (6-5) beat the Arizona Cardinals in Week 12, boosting their chances of making the playoffs to 48 percent from 39 percent.

The Las Vegas Raiders (4-7) beat the Seattle Seahawks in Week 12, increasing their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 5 percent from 3 percent.

The Denver Broncos (3-9) lost to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained less than 1 percent. They are on the cusp of being eliminated from playoff contention.

The Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) have clinched a playoff berth.

The Dallas Cowboys (8-3) beat the New York Giants in Week 12, boosting their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 99 percent from 98 percent.

The Washington Commanders (7-5-1) tied the New York Giants on Sunday, boosting their chances of making the playoffs to 74 percent from 68 percent.

The New York Giants (7-4-1) tied the Washington Commanders on Sunday, boosting their chances of making the playoffs to 73 percent from 64 percent.

The Minnesota Vikings (10-2) beat the New York Jets on Sunday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained greater than 99 percent. A win next week would clinch a playoff berth.

The Detroit Lions (5-7) beat the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, but their chances of making the playoffs remained 6 percent.

The Green Bay Packers (5-8) beat the Chicago Bears on Sunday, increasing their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 5 percent from 4 percent.

The Bears have been eliminated from playoff contention.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6) lost to the Cleveland Browns in Week 12, reducing their chances of making the playoffs to 76 percent from 82 percent.

The Carolina Panthers (4-8) beat the Denver Broncos in Week 12, increasing their chances of making the playoffs to 11 percent from 3 percent.

The New Orleans Saints (4-8) lost to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 12, reducing their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 8 percent from 10 percent.

The Atlanta Falcons (5-8) lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, reducing their chances of making the playoffs to 6 percent from 14 percent.

The San Francisco 49ers (7-4) beat the New Orleans Saints in Week 12, raising their chances of making the playoffs to 95 percent from 90 percent.

The Seattle Seahawks (6-5) lost to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 12, lowering their chances of making the playoffs to 44 percent from 63 percent.

The Los Angeles Rams (3-8) lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 12, reducing their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 1 percent from 4 percent.

The Arizona Cardinals (4-8) lost to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 12, dropping their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 1 percent from 2 percent.

How the Atlanta Falcons Can Make the 2022 N.F.L. PlayoffsThrough Week 13

6%
Chance to make the playoffs
Based on 249,000 simulations.
More simulations

Likeliest Playoff Positions

SCENARIO PROBABILITY
Bye week <1%
Host wild card 6%
Wild card <1%
Out 94%

End-of-Season Outcomes

RecordChance this happens Chance to make the playoffs

Division Standings

Highlighted teams would make the playoffs with the choices you’ve made so far.
Record in
Common Games
Team Overall Div. Falcons Opp.
Dec. 4, 2022 Updated

The Atlanta Falcons (5-8) lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, reducing their chances of making the playoffs to 6 percent from 14 percent.

The table below represents the Falcons remaining games. Pick a winner and see what happens to the Falcons playoff chances:

If the Falcons win
If the Falcons lose
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
The chance the Falcons make the playoffs if this happens.
Reset

As you pick winners, the colors on some games will change, reflecting their relative importance for a Falcons postseason berth.

Or explore other possibilities, like a first-round bye or a division title, right here:

The tables below represent every N.F.L. game remaining. Pick winners and explore which games matter most to the Falcons chances.

Week 13
THU
8:15 ET
SUN
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
4:05 ET
4:05 ET
4:25 ET
4:25 ET
8:20 ET
MON
8:15 ET
Reset
Week 14
THU
8:15 ET
SUN
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
4:05 ET
4:25 ET
4:25 ET
8:20 ET
MON
8:15 ET
Reset
Week 15
THU
8:15 ET
SUN
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
4:05 ET
4:25 ET
4:25 ET
8:20 ET
MON
8:15 ET
Reset
Week 16
THU
8:15 ET
SAT
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
4:05 ET
4:25 ET
8:15 ET
SUN
1:00 ET
4:30 ET
8:20 ET
MON
8:15 ET
Reset
Week 17
THU
8:15 ET
SUN
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
4:05 ET
4:05 ET
4:25 ET
8:20 ET
MON
8:30 ET
Reset
Week 18
SUN
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
1:00 ET
Reset
About the simulator

With 83 games remaining, there are about 10 septillion different ways the N.F.L. regular season could end. How many of those put the Falcons in the playoffs? Far too many to check by hand.

So we built this simulator. Most calculators force you to choose the winners of each remaining game. Here, you can choose the outcomes of just a few games and see how your team’s chances grow or shrink. (For more information about this simulator, check out our newly updated guide.)

We estimate odds by randomly simulating the remainder of the season thousands of times and counting how often the Falcons make the playoffs.

If you don’t specify an outcome for a particular game, we use Sagarin ratings to estimate each team’s chances of winning. (For simplicity, we assume each game has an equally small chance of ending in a tie.)