Ohio U.S. Senate Election Results

Winner Winner

J.D. Vance, Republican, wins the U.S. Senate seat in Ohio.

Race called by The Associated Press.

Latest results from Dec. 9
Vote totals certified

U.S. Senate race called.

U.S. Senate
Candidate Party Votes Percent
J.D. Vance Winner
Republican Rep. 2,192,114 53.1%
Tim Ryan
Democrat Dem. 1,939,489 46.9
Total reported

Timing of results

Mail ballots postmarked by the day before the election have 10 days to arrive.

Where votes have been reported and where votes remain

These maps show the leading candidates’ margins in the reported vote and estimates for which candidate leads in the remaining votes that we expect from each county.

Votes reported

Estimated votes remaining

We stopped updating these forecasts at 4 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, Nov. 9, as the bulk of the remaining races will be decided by mail ballots that will take days to count. These graphics and estimates will no longer be updated.

County Margin Votes Percent of votes in
Franklin Ryan +33 424,768 100%
Cuyahoga Ryan +36 408,466 100%
Hamilton Ryan +15 302,303 100%
Summit Ryan +13 199,835 100%
Montgomery Ryan +1.7 185,894 100%
Stark Vance +16 133,502 100%
Lucas Ryan +20 131,736 100%
Butler Vance +24 128,017 100%
Lorain Ryan +2 111,679 100%
Warren Vance +29 101,340 100%
Delaware Vance +6 98,858 100%
Lake Vance +8 94,056 100%
Mahoning Vance +3 85,818 100%
Clermont Vance +32 79,972 100%
Medina Vance +18 77,939 100%
Trumbull Vance +7 72,972 100%
Licking Vance +25 66,340 100%
Greene Vance +19 65,679 100%
Portage Vance +7 60,449 100%
Fairfield Vance +21 59,231 100%
Wood Vance +3 48,123 100%
Clark Vance +23 44,272 100%
Geauga Vance +19 42,679 100%
Miami Vance +43 42,107 100%
Richland Vance +38 41,716 100%
Wayne Vance +33 38,431 100%
Columbiana Vance +40 35,534 100%
Allen Vance +42 32,657 100%
Ashtabula Vance +19 30,838 100%
Tuscarawas Vance +32 30,339 100%
Erie Vance +6 28,828 100%
Muskingum Vance +37 27,302 100%
Hancock Vance +36 27,074 100%
Union Vance +29 25,395 100%
Knox Vance +40 23,073 100%
Jefferson Vance +31 22,884 100%
Washington Vance +39 22,750 100%
Ross Vance +30 22,586 100%
Belmont Vance +35 22,525 100%
Sandusky Vance +23 21,253 100%
Scioto Vance +39 21,067 100%
Darke Vance +62 19,750 100%
Pickaway Vance +42 19,555 100%
Marion Vance +34 19,102 100%
Athens Ryan +21 19,060 100%
Auglaize Vance +61 18,663 100%
Ottawa Vance +16 18,403 100%
Ashland Vance +45 18,400 100%
Huron Vance +35 18,396 100%
Shelby Vance +61 18,021 100%
Seneca Vance +30 17,940 100%
Mercer Vance +62 17,779 100%
Lawrence Vance +45 17,490 100%
Logan Vance +53 16,449 100%
Fulton Vance +35 16,205 100%
Preble Vance +55 15,689 100%
Putnam Vance +64 14,999 100%
Crawford Vance +47 14,803 100%
Champaign Vance +43 14,348 100%
Brown Vance +53 14,132 100%
Madison Vance +38 14,113 100%
Clinton Vance +49 14,077 100%
Defiance Vance +32 13,334 100%
Morrow Vance +50 13,288 100%
Highland Vance +55 13,110 100%
Williams Vance +39 12,838 100%
Guernsey Vance +42 12,183 100%
Perry Vance +44 11,899 100%
Coshocton Vance +42 11,276 100%
Henry Vance +38 10,292 100%
Van Wert Vance +57 10,135 100%
Carroll Vance +46 10,115 100%
Hocking Vance +34 9,492 100%
Gallia Vance +54 9,109 100%
Hardin Vance +45 8,992 100%
Jackson Vance +49 8,884 100%
Adams Vance +55 8,725 100%
Holmes Vance +64 8,620 100%
Fayette Vance +50 8,389 100%
Wyandot Vance +44 8,066 100%
Pike Vance +40 7,815 100%
Meigs Vance +50 7,464 100%
Paulding Vance +51 6,460 100%
Harrison Vance +44 5,172 100%
Monroe Vance +43 4,857 100%
Morgan Vance +45 4,811 100%
Noble Vance +53 4,602 100%
Vinton Vance +49 4,014 100%

How votes compare with 2020

The map below shows how votes cast in this race compare with votes cast in the 2020 presidential election in the same area. Only counties that have reported almost all of their votes are shown.

How votes compare with 2020
County Margin 2020 presidential margin Votes Percent of votes in
Franklin Ryan +33 D+31 424,768 100%
Cuyahoga Ryan +36 D+34 408,466 100%
Hamilton Ryan +15 D+16 302,303 100%
Summit Ryan +13 D+10 199,835 100%
Montgomery Ryan +1.7 D+2 185,894 100%
Stark Vance +16 R+19 133,502 100%
Lucas Ryan +20 D+17 131,736 100%
Butler Vance +24 R+24 128,017 100%
Lorain Ryan +2 R+2 111,679 100%
Warren Vance +29 R+31 101,340 100%
Delaware Vance +6 R+7 98,858 100%
Lake Vance +8 R+14 94,056 100%
Mahoning Vance +3 R+1.9 85,818 100%
Clermont Vance +32 R+37 79,972 100%
Medina Vance +18 R+23 77,939 100%
Trumbull Vance +7 R+11 72,972 100%
Licking Vance +25 R+28 66,340 100%
Greene Vance +19 R+19 65,679 100%
Portage Vance +7 R+12 60,449 100%
Fairfield Vance +21 R+24 59,231 100%
Wood Vance +3 R+8 48,123 100%
Clark Vance +23 R+23 44,272 100%
Geauga Vance +19 R+23 42,679 100%
Miami Vance +43 R+44 42,107 100%
Richland Vance +38 R+40 41,716 100%
Wayne Vance +33 R+37 38,431 100%
Columbiana Vance +40 R+45 35,534 100%
Allen Vance +42 R+40 32,657 100%
Ashtabula Vance +19 R+24 30,838 100%
Tuscarawas Vance +32 R+40 30,339 100%
Erie Vance +6 R+12 28,828 100%
Muskingum Vance +37 R+39 27,302 100%
Hancock Vance +36 R+38 27,074 100%
Union Vance +29 R+31 25,395 100%
Knox Vance +40 R+44 23,073 100%
Jefferson Vance +31 R+38 22,884 100%
Washington Vance +39 R+41 22,750 100%
Ross Vance +30 R+35 22,586 100%
Belmont Vance +35 R+44 22,525 100%
Sandusky Vance +23 R+28 21,253 100%
Scioto Vance +39 R+42 21,067 100%
Darke Vance +62 R+64 19,750 100%
Pickaway Vance +42 R+47 19,555 100%
Marion Vance +34 R+39 19,102 100%
Athens Ryan +21 D+15 19,060 100%
Auglaize Vance +61 R+63 18,663 100%
Ottawa Vance +16 R+23 18,403 100%
Ashland Vance +45 R+49 18,400 100%
Huron Vance +35 R+41 18,396 100%
Shelby Vance +61 R+63 18,021 100%
Seneca Vance +30 R+34 17,940 100%
Mercer Vance +62 R+65 17,779 100%
Lawrence Vance +45 R+46 17,490 100%
Logan Vance +53 R+55 16,449 100%
Fulton Vance +35 R+40 16,205 100%
Preble Vance +55 R+57 15,689 100%
Putnam Vance +64 R+66 14,999 100%
Crawford Vance +47 R+51 14,803 100%
Champaign Vance +43 R+48 14,348 100%
Brown Vance +53 R+57 14,132 100%
Madison Vance +38 R+41 14,113 100%
Clinton Vance +49 R+53 14,077 100%
Defiance Vance +32 R+36 13,334 100%
Morrow Vance +50 R+54 13,288 100%
Highland Vance +55 R+60 13,110 100%
Williams Vance +39 R+46 12,838 100%
Guernsey Vance +42 R+48 12,183 100%
Perry Vance +44 R+50 11,899 100%
Coshocton Vance +42 R+49 11,276 100%
Henry Vance +38 R+43 10,292 100%
Van Wert Vance +57 R+57 10,135 100%
Carroll Vance +46 R+53 10,115 100%
Hocking Vance +34 R+42 9,492 100%
Gallia Vance +54 R+55 9,109 100%
Hardin Vance +45 R+52 8,992 100%
Jackson Vance +49 R+54 8,884 100%
Adams Vance +55 R+64 8,725 100%
Holmes Vance +64 R+68 8,620 100%
Fayette Vance +50 R+52 8,389 100%
Wyandot Vance +44 R+50 8,066 100%
Pike Vance +40 R+49 7,815 100%
Meigs Vance +50 R+53 7,464 100%
Paulding Vance +51 R+52 6,460 100%
Harrison Vance +44 R+53 5,172 100%
Monroe Vance +43 R+54 4,857 100%
Morgan Vance +45 R+48 4,811 100%
Noble Vance +53 R+63 4,602 100%
Vinton Vance +49 R+55 4,014 100%

Live forecast: Estimating the outcome

This is our current best estimate for the outcome of this race. We look at the votes that have been reported so far and adjust our estimate based on what we expect from the votes that remain. See the full forecast ›

We stopped updating these forecasts at 4 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, Nov. 9, as the bulk of the remaining races will be decided by mail ballots that will take days to count. These graphics and estimates will no longer be updated.

How our estimated margin has changed so far

The lines below show how the reported margin (dashed line) compares with our estimated final margin (solid line surrounded by an estimate of uncertainty). As a rule, when our estimated margin is steady in the presence of new vote data, our forecast is more trustworthy.

+5 Even +5 +10 +15 +20 7:46 PM +6.6 Reported +6.6 NYT Est.3:59 AM ET

Estimated share of total votes reported

20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 7:46 PM >95% of votes in3:59 AM ET

Analyzing the vote

Your guide to the midterm results, from Times reporters

  • Key races ›

    Democrats secure “trifectas” in many competitive states

    Democrats held onto or gained “trifectas” in a number of states and fended off Republican supermajorities in others. Taking control of the governorship and both legislative chambers in these states could ease Democrats’ ability to pass legislation on an array of issues. Read more › — Andrew Fischer Nov. 17, 2022

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  • Arizona Governor ›

    In Arizona governor’s race, post-election ballot tallies narrow the margin

    The gap between the candidates for Arizona governor narrowed considerably after Nov. 8 as late absentee ballots were tallied, including ones dropped off on Election Day. These ballots, which in 2020 favored Trump, were not enough to tilt the election in favor of the Republican candidate Kari Lake. — Christine Zhang Nov. 14, 2022

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  • Senate analysis ›

    Where Senate Candidates Outperformed Biden and Trump

    With Senator Cortez Masto’s victory in Nevada, Democrats will retain Senate control, even if Republicans win a run-off election in Georgia. While Tuesday’s election represented a strong performance by a first-term president’s party, the individual showings of Senate candidates varied widely. Read more › — Lazaro Gamio Nov. 14, 2022

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  • U.S. House ›

    Candidates with ties to QAnon conspiracy theory lose ground

    Three Republican House candidates who have supported QAnon underperformed compared with Trump, despite most House Republicans outperforming the former president. Lauren Boebert, incumbent in Colorado’s 3rd district, is in an unexpectedly close race in what was considered a safe Republican district. — Albert Sun Nov. 10, 2022

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  • Georgia Senate ›

    Where Walker received less of the vote than Kemp

    More than 200,000 Georgia voters cast ballots for Brian Kemp, Republican candidate for governor, but did not vote for Herschel Walker in the Senate race. Compared to Kemp’s reported votes, Walker’s fell short in every county, but especially in the Atlanta area and its suburbs. — Jason Kao Nov. 10, 2022

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  • Mich. Proposal 3 ›

    Where Michiganders supported abortion rights and a Republican for governor

    Support for the abortion proposal was stronger than support for reelected Governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, in 76 of the state’s 83 counties. Eight counties that voted Yes on the proposal also voted for the Republican candidate for governor, Tudor Dixon. — Alicia Parlapiano Nov. 10, 2022

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  • Path to 218 ›

    Tracking the remaining House races

    As of noon Eastern time, Democrats have won 190 House seats, Republicans have won 208, and 37 are still undecided. If Republicans win all of the races where they are currently leading by two points or more, they’ll take control of the House. Follow along here › — Alicia Parlapiano Nov. 10, 2022

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  • Texas Governor ›

    Greg Abbott wins in Texas, but still lagged in Hispanic counties

    In Texas, majority-Hispanic counties also swung to the right, but to a much lesser degree than in Florida. Voters in these counties overall continued to support the Democratic candidate for governor, Beto O’Rourke. — Albert Sun Nov. 9, 2022

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  • Florida Governor ›

    DeSantis made large gains in Hispanic counties

    Majority-Hispanic counties in Florida voted to reelect Gov. Ron DeSantis over Democratic opponent Charlie Crist by a margin of 11 percentage points. These same counties favored Biden over Trump in 2020 by a margin of 8 percentage points — a whopping 19-point swing. — Albert Sun Nov. 9, 2022

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  • Drug policy ›

    Mixed success for marijuana ballot measures

    Maryland and Missouri voted to legalize recreational marijuana for people 21 and older, while voters in Arkansas, North Dakota and South Dakota rejected similar measures. In Colorado, a measure to decriminalize certain psychedelics is close but yet to be decided. — Alicia Parlapiano Nov. 9, 2022

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  • Abortion access ›

    Where the midterms mattered most for abortion access

    Voters in three states enshrined lasting protections for abortion rights in their state Constitutions. In two states, shifts in state power could lead to new restrictions. In Ariz., Mont., Neb. and Pa., competitive state races with consequences for abortion remain too close to call. Read more › — NYT Graphics Nov. 9, 2022

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  • Pennsylvania elections ›

    Four Pennsylvania counties split their tickets

    John Fetterman, the Democratic candidate for Senate, won by a smaller margin than Josh Shapiro, the Democratic candidate for governor. Four counties — all of which supported Trump in 2020 — voted for Shapiro but chose Dr. Oz, the Republican, for the Senate. — Ruth Igielnik Nov. 9, 2022

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  • Michigan elections ›

    In Michigan’s national and state-level races, Democrats triumph

    Democratic House candidates outperformed Biden in several Michigan districts, bucking a rightward trend and maintaining seven of their seats. Democrats also won the Governor’s office, State Senate, and appear poised to take the State Assembly, and voters affirmed abortion rights in the state. — Albert Sun Nov. 9, 2022

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  • U.S. House ›

    New York could be an important key in pathway to Republican control of House

    House districts rated as tossups have been called mostly in favor of Democrats so far, with one state as a glaring exception: New York. Republicans have won in four of five New York tossup seats, and the Republican candidate is ahead in the fifth. — Lauren Leatherby Nov. 9, 2022

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  • Election deniers ›

    Which 2020 election deniers and skeptics won

    More than 210 Republicans who questioned the 2020 election have won seats in the U.S. House and Senate and in state races for governor, secretary of state and attorney general, according to results as of 12 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday. Here’s who won › — NYT Graphics Nov. 9, 2022

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  • Georgia Governor ›

    In Georgia, a tale of two races

    While the race for Georgia’s senate seat remains extremely tight, the Governor’s race was decided last night. Brian Kemp gained more votes compared to Trump in 2020 all across Georgia, beating Stacey Abrams by a more than seven-point margin. — Lazaro Gamio Nov. 9, 2022

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  • Ohio Senate ›

    Vance carries Ohio Senate amidst statewide left swing

    J.D. Vance won Ohio handily even as almost every part of the state voted more for Democrats than they did in 2020. — Lazaro Gamio Nov. 9, 2022

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  • Nevada Senate ›

    Nevada’s urban counties could tighten race

    Cortez Masto is behind in Nevada at the moment, but there are a lot of votes left in Clark and Washoe, counties home to the state's largest cities. The remaining vote there could tighten the race as it is counted. — Lazaro Gamio Nov. 9, 2022

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  • U.S. Senate ›

    Three key Senate races to watch

    The Senate races in Georgia, Nevada and Arizona are very tight, and vote counting is expected to drag into the week. The outcomes of the races in these three states will decide the balance of power in the Senate. — Lazaro Gamio Nov. 9, 2022

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  • Texas Governor ›

    Despite defeat, O’Rourke maintained support along the border

    The feared Democratic collapse along the Rio Grande didn’t materialize. Beto O’Rourke performed better than expected in these majority-Hispanic counties. — Nate Cohn Nov. 9, 2022

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  • U.S. Senate ›

    What each party needs to win control of the Senate

    Democrats and Republicans each need to win three more competitive Senate seats to win control of the chamber (in addition to the races they are expected to win most easily). Here’s the state of the closest races: — Lazaro Gamio Nov. 9, 2022

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  • Pennsylvania Senate ›

    Fetterman ahead in counties finished counting

    With more counties nearly finished counting, things keep looking better for Lt. Gov. John Fetterman. He’s outperforming Biden across the state and is currently up 8 points in counties that were the closest in 2020. — Alicia Parlapiano Nov. 9, 2022

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  • When polls close ›

    Polls close at midnight Eastern in two states

    Alaska has competitive races for both the Senate and the House, neither of which is a straightforward Democrat-versus-Republican affair. Don’t expect quick results in either race; officials in Alaska won’t finish counting absentee ballots for about two weeks. — Maggie Astor Nov. 8, 2022

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  • Florida Governor ›

    How Majority-Hispanic counties voted in Florida

    Gov. DeSantis outperformed Trump in Florida in every county that has nearly finished counting votes. While the three majority-Hispanic counties — Hendry, Miami-Dade and Osceola — shifted the most, Latino turnout tends to drop more in the midterms compared with other groups. — Alicia Parlapiano Nov. 8, 2022

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  • Arizona Senate ›

    Arizona’s Senate race looks like a tossup

    The early vote in Arizona has been strong for Democrat Mark Kelly, but we expect a good portion of the in-person and late-counted mail vote to favor Blake Masters. It could be awhile before all votes are counted. — Alicia Parlapiano Nov. 8, 2022

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  • When polls close ›

    Polls close at 11 p.m. Eastern in two states

    In Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is facing a strong Republican challenge, though she remains favored to win. Aside from that, the main action at this hour will be in the House, with a close race in Washington’s 8th District and at least half a dozen in California. — Maggie Astor Nov. 8, 2022

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  • Wisconsin Senate ›

    Wisconsin is leaning toward Johnson

    It’s still early in Wisconsin, but it looks close. In the counties where most of the vote is in, Senator Ron Johnson is running ahead of Trump. — Nate Cohn Nov. 8, 2022

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  • Kentucky Amendment 2 ›

    Kentuckians appear to rebuke restrictive abortion amendment

    Kentucky, a solidly red state, reelected Rand Paul to the Senate. But so far, voters are rejecting an effort to deny abortion rights. However the state already bans abortions, and that is unlikely to change. — Lazaro Gamio Nov. 8, 2022

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  • Pennsylvania Senate ›

    Early returns favor Fetterman

    It’s still early, but Fetterman is running ahead of Biden in five Pennsylvania counties that have reported nearly all of their votes. — Nate Cohn Nov. 8, 2022

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  • The Needle ›

    How to read The Needle charts

    These charts show how the reported vote margin (the dashed line) compares with our estimated final margin (the solid line, surrounded by bands of uncertainty) over time. When reported data comes in that is not what we expected, our model will update and incorporate this new data. — Lazaro Gamio Nov. 8, 2022

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  • Virginia 7th District ›

    Fast counting in rural Virginia counties boosts Republican candidate

    Rural counties in Virginia’s 7th district are counting votes more quickly than its most populous and left-leaning county, Prince William. It’s giving Yesli Vega, the Republican candidate, an edge over incumbent Abigail Spanberger, though this could be temporary. Here’s where we think votes remain. — Kennedy Elliott Nov. 8, 2022

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  • When polls close ›

    Polls close at 10 p.m. Eastern in five states

    Nevada is the last big swing state of the day, and virtually everything is up for grabs: The races for Senate, three House seats, governor and secretary of state. There is also an unexpectedly competitive Senate race in Utah between Senator Mike Lee, a Republican, and Evan McMullin, an independent. — Maggie Astor Nov. 8, 2022

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  • Florida Governor ›

    Shift to the right in Florida

    The shift to the right has been dramatic among counties in Florida reporting nearly all their votes. Eight of those counties that voted for Biden in 2020 shifted 16 points to the right in the race for governor, and 12 points in the Senate race. — Lazaro Gamio Nov. 8, 2022

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  • When polls close ›

    Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern in 10 states

    Arizona has multiple races featuring Republicans who have questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election. In Wisconsin, Senator Ron Johnson, a Republican, is up for re-election against Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, and there is a close contest for governor. — Maggie Astor Nov. 8, 2022

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  • Ohio Senate ›

    Another state with misleading early returns: Ohio

    Democrat Tim Ryan leads Republican J.D. Vance in the returns, but almost all of the results are early votes, which we expect to disproportionately favor Democrats. Here’s where we think votes remain. — Alicia Parlapiano Nov. 8, 2022

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  • Georgia Senate ›

    Why early results may be misleading in Georgia

    Senator Raphael Warnock is out with an early lead in Georgia, but it could all be just a mirage. Most of the vote reporting so far is early, and Democrats are expected to win those votes by a large margin. — Nate Cohn Nov. 8, 2022

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  • The Needle ›

    The NYT Needle is live

    The Times’s election forecast is now running. We use early returns and polling data to estimate in real time the outcome of the elections for Senate and House control. Here’s how it works › — Nate Cohn Nov. 8, 2022

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  • When polls close ›

    Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern in 19 states and D.C.

    Pennsylvania is home to a close Senate race between Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a Democrat, and Dr. Mehmet Oz, a Republican. Michiganders are voting on abortion rights. And Kansas’ Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, is in a tight re-election race, as is Gov. Janet Mills of Maine. — Maggie Astor Nov. 8, 2022

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  • When polls close ›

    Polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern in three states

    Republicans are favored to win the open Senate races in North Carolina and Ohio, but if Democrats have a better-than-expected day, these are two places we might see evidence of it. We’ll also be watching competitive House races in N.C.-13 and Ohio-9. — Maggie Astor Nov. 8, 2022

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  • Florida Governor ›

    Early vote in Miami shows Republican strength

    Gov. Ron DeSantis winning the early vote in Miami-Dade County — which voted for Hillary Clinton by +29 points just six years ago — is yet another sign of growing Republican strength among Hispanic voters. — Nate Cohn Nov. 8, 2022

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  • When polls close ›

    Polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern in six states

    The Georgia Senate race, which could go to a Dec. 6 runoff, could determine which party controls the chamber. In Virginia, the performances of Democratic incumbents in the 2nd and 7th districts may offer early indications of how the party will fare in House races overall. — Maggie Astor Nov. 8, 2022

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  • U.S. House ›

    What’s at stake in the House

    Republicans must win just 19 competitive seats to retake majority control from the Democrats. To retain control of the House, Democrats must win 46 of these seats (after accounting for the races the parties are expected to win most easily). — Alicia Parlapiano Nov. 8, 2022

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  • When polls close ›

    First polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern in Kentucky and Indiana

    In Kentucky, voters will decide whether to approve a constitutional amendment that would effectively ensure the implementation of a near-total abortion ban. In Indiana, a House race in the 1st district leans Democratic, but, if the seat were to flip, it could be an early sign of a red wave. — Maggie Astor Nov. 8, 2022

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  • U.S. Senate ›

    What’s at stake in the Senate

    If Democrats hold onto two seats leaning their way, they will need to win three additional tossup seats to maintain control of the Senate. Republicans would need just two tossup seats beyond what they are favored to win. — Lazaro Gamio Nov. 8, 2022

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  • Results timing ›

    Results in key Senate races could take awhile

    Six of the eight most competitive Senate races are in states that did not call a winner in the presidential race until after election night: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. What we expect this year › — Alicia Parlapiano Nov. 8, 2022

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  • Early returns

    Be wary of ‘mirages’ on election night

    Because of the order in which different types of ballots are counted, early returns can be misleading. In 2020, Virginia’s early vote for president favored Republicans, while Pennsylvania’s skewed toward Democrats. These “mirages” show that vote margins early in the night can change significantly. — Lazaro Gamio Nov. 8, 2022

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  • When polls close ›

    Polls in most states will close by 9 p.m. Eastern

    Results will begin coming in at 6 p.m. Eastern as the first polls close in Indiana and Kentucky, but the pace will really pick up with a slew of closings at 7 and 8. By 9 p.m., the polls will have closed in a majority of states. — Maggie Astor Nov. 8, 2022

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About this data Demographic data are based on the U.S. Census Bureau 2016–2020 American Community Survey five-year estimates and provided by SocialExplorer.com. The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties was used to group counties by size. Historical election results are from The Associated Press and from the Voting and Election Science Team, which analyzed precinct results to determine the 2020 presidential vote for 2022 House districts. “Most competitive” counties represent those in which Trump or Biden won by 5 points or less in 2020.